Tariffs Could Cost Canada $93.8 Billion Over Five Years: Study Reveals Provincial Impacts and Global Opportunities

The constantly growing menace of tariffs from our neighbor below the border appears to dominate everyone's thoughts nowadays. Despite being somewhat unpredictable with frequent changes in plans during the initial part of 2025, should they fully take effect, they could impose significant financial strain on enterprises spanning every sector throughout Canada.

A fresh analysis by the Public Policy Forum in collaboration with Navius Research scrutinizes the possible effects across each Canadian province and explores strategies for Canada to potentially respond through retaliatory tariffs.

Inez Jabalpurwala, the president and CEO of the forum, stated in a release that they conducted this research to offer timely quantitative insights for policymakers.

The study highlights new priorities for Canadian leadership, such as rapidly advancing north-south and south-north trading relationships within Canada and internationally.

Each province’s sectors would face some level of downturn, including gasoline and diesel refining in New Brunswick, aluminum exports out of Quebec, steel and automobile production in Ontario, potash and uranium mining in Saskatchewan, as well as oil and natural gas activities in Alberta.

Don't Miss

The following five magical financial maneuvers can aid in climbing Canada's wealth hierarchy in 2025, with every stage being completable in mere minutes. Here's how
Discover the top banking promotions, account incentives, and cashback deals with us. top new banking account promotions Don't let these time-limited offers pass you by!
Emergency veterinary expenses can reach up to $4,000 – however, adequate insurance can cover these costs. you can safeguard your pet without emptying your wallet

What could realistically occur if these tariffs are put into place?

The sector expected to feel the biggest impact from President Trump's tariffs is automotive manufacturing, which could face a $93.8 billion blow in Ontario within five years. Meanwhile, Quebec’s aluminum industry might suffer losses of approximately $12.7 billion during this timeframe.

Nevertheless, the outlook isn’t entirely bleak for Canadians. According to the report, industries focused mainly on domestic trade or with exchanges centered around Asia and Europe might be shielded from US tariff impacts and could potentially see expansion throughout this timeframe.

Industries with exposure to larger marketplaces, like offshore oil extraction in Newfoundland and liquefied natural gas manufacturing on the West Coast, could potentially gain from these tariffs," explained Jothan Peters, managing partner of Navius Research. "This situation might serve as an example for how Canada can protect its economy moving forward.

"Greater trade networks to either the east or west coast will help insulate Canada from trade shocks with the US and can act as leverage for the next tariff threat."

Unforeseen medical expenses can accumulate rapidly, even within Canada’s healthcare system. cost-effective health coverage to safeguard you and those dear to you

What occurs if Canada retaliates?

Conversely, an examination conducted by the Public Policy Forum indicates that imposing a 25% counter-tariff on 23 categories of American products entering Canada would result in greater harm to the United States compared to Canada.

Several affected sectors encompass: food production, pharmaceuticals, fabricated metals, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, manufactured items, steel, plastics, cement, non-ferrous metals, paper products, mining outputs, textiles, and wood-based goods.

The report further discloses that certain tariffs could have a greater positive impact on Canada compared to the US—starting with the fact that Canada can easily switch to alternative suppliers for products like imported alcoholic beverages instead of relying solely on American goods.

Secondly, some sectors might face adverse effects due to US tariffs yet possess ample manufacturing capability to satisfy nationwide demands, like steel in Ontario and Quebec.

The forum suggests steering clear of tariffs on products that depend significantly on an intertwined supply chain across the two nations, like automobiles.

In addition, Canada could cause greater damage to itself if it responds with tariffs on items such as oil, electrical goods, unprocessed timber, natural gas, chemicals, refined petroleum, machines, biofuels, agricultural produce, and automobiles.

This article A possible $93.8 billion blowover a five-year span:A new research revealshow Trump's tariffs mightaffectprovincial economies—buttherearealternativeselsewhere. originally appeared on Money.ca

Search This Blog

Canada Pulse